Did Social Media Predict Carl Icahn’s Biggest Trades?

The following article was written by our guest author Insider Monkey. There are a select few money managers whose words can move entire markets, but up to this point, only one has mastered the medium of Twitter [TWTR]: Carl Icahn. After creating an account earlier this year, the billionaire has disclosed a few big positions on the micro blogging site, including a purchase of Apple [AAPL] and a sale of Netflix [NFLX] stock.

While the media has had a lot to say about Icahn’s Twitter account, no one has taken the time to examine his trades in terms of social media sentiment. For someone who is likely the world’s most socially active hedge fund manager, surprisingly little analysis has been done in this realm.

With the help of Market Prophit, a company that converts stock-related social media posts into easy-to-read data, we’re able to look at how much chatter Icahn’s biggest trades created. More interestingly, it appears that some of this buzz actually predicted the moves before they happened.

Netflix

Netflix was the recipient of a major cut by Icahn late last month. In a 13D filing and subsequent tweet after the market’s close on October 22nd, the investor reported a 4.5% stake in the streaming video company, about half of what he previously owned. This move came 24 hours after Netflix’s stock price had surged on promising third quarter earnings.

Market Prophit’s CEO, Igor Gonta, revealed to us that on the morning of the 22nd, social media circles were already buzzing about a major seller “doing large block sales” of Netflix, and Icahn’s name was visibly in the rumor mill. By the time the market had closed, Icahn’s official SEC disclosure pressed the stock to drop almost all of its gains from the previous day’s earnings report.

Apple

Any analysis of Carl Icahn and Twitter must include Apple. On the afternoon of August 13th this year, Icahn tweeted that he had a “large position” in the tech giant on the basis of undervaluation, adding that a conversation with Tim Cook was on the table. As Gonta pointed out to us, shares of Apple rallied by nearly 2.5% just 20 minutes after Icahn’s initial tweet, and social media sentiment turned positive approximately two minutes prior to the reveal (see graph here).

The next major event on the Icahn-Apple timeline was on October 1st. Halfway through the morning on this date, Icahn tweeted about the dinner he had with Tim Cook the night before, in which he reiterated his desire for Apple to pursue a $150 billion share buyback plan.

Market Prophit again picked up on bullish chatter before Icahn’s tweet went live at 10:23am. This time, an uptick in positive social chatter led the tweet by a full 40 minutes, and shares of Apple had already risen by almost one full percentage point by half past ten. According to Gonta, social media sentiment turned negative immediately following Icahn’s tweet “because the price had already run up,” indicating that a classic “sell the news” phenomenon had just taken place.

Sitting here in early November, it’s unknown if Icahn will succeed in his quest to convince Apple that a larger buyback will lead to a $1,250 stock price. What we can say with confidence, though, is if the hedge fund manager is active on Twitter again, social media chatter may predict it.

Disclosure: none

Carl Icahn’s Best Pick Isn’t Apple…These Stocks Are! - How The Big Investor Makes Money

The following article was written by our guest author Insider Moneky. Carl Icahn may have lifted the company’s market cap by $20 billion in less than two days of trading last month, but Apple [s:AAPL] isn’t his best stock pick. There are four positions in the multi-billionaire’s equity portfolio that are worth looking at before Cupertino. We’ll show you which ones and explain why.

At the end of last quarter, Carl Icahn’s hedge fund held long positions in 19 different companies totaling a market value of $21.5 billion. With Icahn’s pedigree as an elite activist investor, it’s not surprising that he’d have that much money in U.S. equities, but it is a bit intriguing that four of his eleven largest picks are small-caps.

According to our research at Insider Monkey, hedge funds’ small-cap picks have the highest potential to outperform the market over a sustained period of time. Our premium newsletter, which employs this strategy, beat the S&P 500 by nearly 30 percentage points in its first year (discover how we did this here).

With that in mind, let’s run through the four largest small-cap investments in Icahn’s equity portfolio. Each stock had a market cap between $1 billion and $5 billion at the end of the last 13F-filing period.

CVR Energy [CVI] is Icahn’s largest small-cap holding, and his stake comprises more than four-fifths of its outstanding shares. After grabbing exposure in CVR Energy last year, Icahn’s initial goal was to push for a sale of the company to a larger buyer. Once this move failed, he then guided CVR to spin off its refining subsidiary in January. In his last filing, Icahn held $3.6 billion in CVR Energy stock and $138 million in the spinoff, CVR Refining [CVRR].

The latter has returned just 0.2% post-IPO, but CVR Energy shares are up almost 70% since Icahn first established his stake in early 2012. The bet has been very profitable for Icahn, and with gushing refining margins in its last few earnings reports, there may be more appreciation on the horizon for CVR Energy.

Federal Mogul [FDML], meanwhile, is another high-flier in Icahn’s equity portfolio. The hedge fund manager’s second largest small-cap holding has been a key investment since 2011. In the summer of that year, Icahn established his original position in the auto part maker, and he has held a controlling interest ever since. Shares of Federal Mogul are up a whopping 177% in the past six months on the back of a massive earnings beat last quarter and a fairly extensive restructuring program.

Herbalife [HLF] needs no introduction, and is the next largest-small cap in Icahn’s portfolio. The multi-level marketer had a market cap below $5 billion at the end of last quarter, but its value has since risen by about 50%. Over the longer term, Herbalife shares have more than doubled since the start of 2013, and the market hasn’t been convinced by Bill Ackman’s “pyramid scheme” accusations (see his full presentation here).

Icahn has shown no hesitation to call out Pershing Square’s manager for being “totally wrong” and “ridiculous” in his words, but Ackman hasn’t shown any signs of closing his short position in Herbalife. As for Icahn, he thinks the stock is still cheap at current levels.

Hain Celestial Group [HAIN] is the next largest small-cap in the activist’s equity portfolio, and surprise, surprise, this stock is having a good 2013 too. Shares of the organic food and personal care product company are up 37% this year, and Icahn closed out his $470 million position a little over two weeks ago. Since he established his Hain stake in early 2010, the stock’s price has risen from around $22 per share to the upper $70 range.

As CEO Irwin Simon explains in a recent interview with CNBC, “Hain today is positioned better than it was when Carl got in … because of the awareness of healthy eating.” In other words, it’s the secular tailwinds—not just Icahn’s influence on a couple M&A moves—that have driven Hain’s appreciation. The organic boom doesn’t look like it will end any time soon according to the USDA, so we still like Hain Celestial post-Icahn.

Disclosure: none

5 Latest Dividend Stock Purchases From Carl Icahn And His Full Portfolio

Carl Icahn’s asset allocation strategy orignially published at long-term-investments.blogspot.com. Some of you might have heard about Carl Icahn, the Jewish investor. Icahn manages around $21.5 billion in his asset management vehicle Ichan Capital Management.

Within the past, Icahn had proved a very good taste in investing. With only 19 shares, he is also a much undiversified guy and focused on stocks he really knows. In the past I’ve described his latest Q1 stock purchases.

Today, I would like to show you the latest stock moves from Carl Icahn of the second quarter. 

In Q2, Carl hit the button for 16 trades and purchased only seven stocks of which one was a completely new stake in his portfolio. Five of his stock acquisitions pay dividends. You can find a detailed list about these stocks below. The biggest moves were reasonable to Dell, CVR Refining as well as Nuance Communications.

Icahn loves cheap stocks and he is also a noisy guy like most of the activists. The average forward P/E of his latest acquisitions is only at 13.83 and earnings are expected to grow by 10.32 percent for the next five years.

Carl Icahn’s Latest Dividend Stock Buys And His Biggest Portfolio Holdings

Carl Icahn’s recent stock buys and largest stock holdings as of Q1/2013 originally published at "long-term-investments.blogspot.com". Carl Icahn is a well known investor. He serves around USD 16.9 billion in his asset management company Icahn Capital Management LP. His asset allocation is very focused on single stocks. In total he has only 19 stock holdings of which four are new. Within the recent quarter, Icahn bought only five companies. He’s a guy who wants control and he wants to change something. In of his portfolio holdings he has a significant influence with an ownership of more than 10 percent of the outstanding capital.

From his 13 latest stock buys pay only seven dividends. Eight of them have a current buy or better rating by brokerage analysts.

Carl Icahn’s Biggest Dividend Stock Holdings

Largest dividend stock positions by Carl Icahn originally published at "long-term-investments.blogspot.com". Super investors made a great return in the past and they got very rich. 

Not all started to make money with little stock trading. Some of them made big deals with huge loans. They took the risk and won the game.

Carl Icahn is such a person. He is an activist with $12 billion market value of his Icahn Capital Management vehicle. Herbalife, Transocean or Dell, Icahn is still named as investor who stirs up the pastry.

Today I like to look at the biggest dividend positions of Carl Icahn as of Q4/2012. His full portfolio has only 15 companies, which is not much and looks very undiversified. Warren Buffett still has more stocks in his portfolio and he is also no big asset gatherer. 

Icahn is no dividend lover; he has only four dividend stocks. His biggest dividend machine is the own property management company, Icahn Enterprises. IEP pays a 7.07 percent yield.